NIC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NIC - Nicolet Bankshares,Inc.
$148.62
3.55 (2.45%)
▲
5d:
+1.49%
30d:
-4.76%
90d:
+20.17%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 21, 2026
19d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NIC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NIC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$230.25
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$142.97
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NIC is currently trading at $148.62, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $144.15 to $154.91. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.4) is in line with its historical norms (10.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 20.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NIC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $149.70. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NIC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (1th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $176.60 (+18.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NIC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $149.70. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NIC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (1th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $176.60 (+18.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$144.15 -
$154.91
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
1th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 1th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($176.60)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$144.15 -
$154.91
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.91
(3.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$138.74
Resistance Level
$149.70
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.42
Wall Street Target
$176.60
(+18.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.1%
Profit Margin
38.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.4 vs 10.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$148.47
(0%)
2-Year Target
$148.32
(0%)
3-Year Target
$148.17
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$149.26
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 14.1%)
$473.13
(+218%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.4, Growth: 14.1%)
$220.67
(+49%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.9, Growth: 14.1%)
$187.57
(+26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.78
Bull Case
$225.35
(+58%)
Analyst growth 46.7%, PE expands to 15.7
Base Case
$204.86
(+44%)
Market implied 46.7%, PE stable at 14.3
Bear Case
$94.98
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.4 to 10.5
Stabilization Target:
$149.70
(+0.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 01, 2026 2:57 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:57 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:57 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NIC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
3
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Robert Bruce Atwell
SELL
3309 shares
2026-03-12
Robert Bruce Atwell
SELL
3331 shares
2026-03-05
Robert Bruce Atwell
SELL
6396 shares
2026-02-18
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