NTES Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NTES - NetEase, inc.
$128.83
-3.27 (-2.48%)
ā¼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 19, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
š HOLD: NTES shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
š HOLD: NTES shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$177.36
Based on 5.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$110.13
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NTES is currently trading at $128.83, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $133.09 to $142.81. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 2.0) is in line with its historical norms (2.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 31.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NTES is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $130.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NTES has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $168.96 (+27.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NTES is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $130.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NTES has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $168.96 (+27.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$133.09 -
$142.81
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding NTES? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.9% below Wall St target ($168.96)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$133.09 -
$142.81
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$130.06
Resistance Level
$139.55
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
2.02
Wall Street Target
$168.96
(+27.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
31.5%
Profit Margin
32.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
2.0 vs 2.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$130.38
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$128.69
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$127.01
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2ā2)
$131.75
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 6.6%)
$1760.85
(+1233%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 2.0, Growth: 6.6%)
$159.86
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.7, Growth: 6.6%)
$135.88
(+3%)
š
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.11
Bull Case
$294.32
(+129%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 18.2
Base Case
$267.56
(+108%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 16.5
Bear Case
$90.97
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
š”
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 2.0 to 2.1
Stabilization Target:
$137.03
(+3.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.7%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 2:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NTES showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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Advanced NTES Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NTES price and gamma walls.
