OBK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OBK - Origin Bancorp, Inc.
$42.83
0.26 (0.61%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: OBK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: OBK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$55.22
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$34.29
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OBK is currently trading at $42.83, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.19 to $41.18. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.8) is in line with its historical norms (10.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OBK is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $43.34. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: OBK has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OBK is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $43.34. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: OBK has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$38.19 -
$41.18
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($43.40)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.8% growth with -17.7% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$38.19 -
$41.18
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.89
(4.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$39.61
Resistance Level
$43.34
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.78
Wall Street Target
$43.40
(+1.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-17.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-54.8%
Profit Margin
18.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.8% premium
PE vs Historical
10.8 vs 10.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.91
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$43.25
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$43.60
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$42.48
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 7.8%)
$110.36
(+159%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.8, Growth: 7.8%)
$53.34
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.2, Growth: 7.8%)
$45.34
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.91
Bull Case
$86.52
(+103%)
Analyst growth 91.8%, PE expands to 23.6
Base Case
$78.65
(+85%)
Market implied 91.8%, PE stable at 21.5
Bear Case
$27.88
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OBK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced OBK Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's OBK price and gamma walls.
