OBT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OBT - Orange County Bancorp, Inc. Common Stock
$30.82
0.06 (0.20%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: OBT is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: OBT is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$40.69
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$25.26
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OBT is currently trading at $30.82, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $28.60 to $30.06. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.8) is in line with its historical norms (9.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OBT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $31.49. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: OBT has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OBT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $31.49. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: OBT has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$28.60 -
$30.06
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding OBT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($31.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$28.60 -
$30.06
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$29.06
Resistance Level
$31.49
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.80
Wall Street Target
$31.33
(+1.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
49.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
164.1%
Profit Margin
31.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.4% premium
PE vs Historical
9.8 vs 9.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.50
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$32.25
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$33.03
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$30.68
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 10.7%)
$94.97
(+209%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.8, Growth: 10.7%)
$41.72
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.3, Growth: 10.7%)
$35.46
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.02
Bull Case
$33.97
(+10%)
Analyst growth 4.0%, PE expands to 10.8
Base Case
$30.88
(+0%)
Market implied 4.0%, PE stable at 9.8
Bear Case
$20.20
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 7:30 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:30 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:30 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OBT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced OBT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's OBT price and gamma walls.
