Is OKTA stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, OKTA is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: OKTA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of OKTA stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for OKTA to be between $87.01 and $92.67. The current price is $84.48.

What is the analyst price target for OKTA?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for OKTA is $113.80. This implies a potential upside of 32.8% from current levels.

OKTA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

OKTA - Okta, Inc. Class A Common Stock

SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

$84.48

-1.21 (-1.41%) ▼

HOLD

LOW Confidence

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Last Updated: January 30, 2026

Earnings: Mar 02, 2026 29d

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: OKTA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 6.7%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$119.04

Based on 5.4% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$73.91

Trading above fair value

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: OKTA is currently trading at $84.48, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $87.01 to $92.67. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 23.4) compared to its historical average (27.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 156.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, OKTA is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $84.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $113.80 (+32.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Fair Price Range $87.01 - $92.67

Company Quality Score 43/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 79.5%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 32.8% below Wall St target ($113.80)
CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.9% 5-day decline

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $87.01 - $92.67

Current vs Fair Value OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $84.00

Resistance Level $92.88

Current Trend Downtrend

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 23.35

Wall Street Target $113.80 (+32.8%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 11.6%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 156.0%

Profit Margin 6.9%

Valuation Discount vs History -5.3% cheaper

PE vs Historical 23.4 vs 27.5 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -5.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $81.15 (-5%)

2-Year Target $76.85 (-10%)

3-Year Target $72.77 (-15%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 23→28) $85.71 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 23.3, Growth: 6.7%) $103.98 (+21%)

Base: (SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 6.7%) $99.31 (+16%)

Bear: (PE: 19.0, Growth: 6.7%) $84.41 (-2%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.

Forward PE: 24.27 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.48

Bull Case $102.01 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 25.5

Base Case $84.48 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 24.3

Bear Case $64.63 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 21.8

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.3 to 27.5

Stabilization Target: $100.92 (+17.8%)

PE Expansion Potential: +17.8%

Last updated: January 31, 2026 11:22 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:22 PM

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Technical Signals Check

Is OKTA showing a specific setup today?

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Larissa Schwartz SELL 1318 shares 2025-10-08

Brett Tighe SELL 10000 shares 2025-10-02

Eric Robert Kelleher SELL 2410 shares 2025-10-01

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Advanced OKTA Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's OKTA price and gamma walls.

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