OMDA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OMDA - Omada Health, Inc. Common Stock
$12.58
-0.03 (-0.24%)
▼
5d:
-4.55%
30d:
-6.95%
90d:
-20.28%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Mar 05, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
OMDA is down 4.4% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $15 2026-05-15 with 158 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: OMDA trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -36.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: OMDA trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -36.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.38
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.79
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OMDA is currently trading at $12.58, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.28 to $14.20. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 35.3) compared to its historical average (136.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 36.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OMDA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.72, while resistance sits at $14.18.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.45 (+78.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OMDA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.72, while resistance sits at $14.18.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.45 (+78.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$12.28 -
$14.20
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 78.1% below Wall St target ($22.45)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$12.28 -
$14.20
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.32
(10.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.72
Resistance Level
$14.18
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
35.33
Wall Street Target
$22.45
(+78.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
58.1%
Profit Margin
-4.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-36.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
35.3 vs 136.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-36.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.35
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$10.21
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$9.19
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 35→136)
$35.44
(+181%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 35.3, Growth: 89.1%)
$42.56
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 89.1%)
$26.92
(+114%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 89.1%)
$22.88
(+82%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 35.3 to 136.2
Stabilization Target:
$48.61
(+285.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+285.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 3:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OMDA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Steven L Cook
SELL
1884 shares
2026-03-13
Sean P Duffy
SELL
4063 shares
2026-03-09
Sean P Duffy
SELL
40796 shares
2026-01-13
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Advanced OMDA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's OMDA price and gamma walls.