ONB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ONB - Old National Bancorp
$22.10
0.62 (2.89%)
▲
5d:
+1.75%
30d:
-6.16%
90d:
-3.03%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 28, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ONB shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ONB shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$33.33
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$20.69
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ONB is currently trading at $22.10, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.30 to $23.64. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.8) is in line with its historical norms (8.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 17.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ONB is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.13. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.31 (+23.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ONB is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.13. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.31 (+23.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$21.30 -
$23.64
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.6% below Wall St target ($27.31)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$21.30 -
$23.64
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.80
Resistance Level
$22.13
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.75
Wall Street Target
$27.31
(+23.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
41.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.2%
Profit Margin
29.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.8 vs 8.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.53
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$20.97
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$20.42
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$22.13
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 9.7%)
$84.10
(+281%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.8, Growth: 9.7%)
$29.16
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.6, Growth: 9.7%)
$24.79
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.87 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.79
Bull Case
$37.37
(+73%)
Analyst growth 59.9%, PE expands to 13.1
Base Case
$33.97
(+58%)
Market implied 59.9%, PE stable at 11.9
Bear Case
$14.44
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.8 to 8.4
Stabilization Target:
$23.95
(+8.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 01, 2026 12:41 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:41 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:41 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ONB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Nicholas J Chulos
SELL
30000 shares
2026-02-03
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