PBYI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PBYI - PUMA BIOTECHNOLOGY INC
$6.09
0.01 (0.16%)
▲
5d:
-2.56%
30d:
+6.84%
90d:
-1.14%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
PBYI is down 5.6% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $5 2026-04-17 with 7 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PBYI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PBYI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.67
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.49
28.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PBYI is currently trading at $6.09, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.86 to $6.88. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.3) compared to its historical average (10.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PBYI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (24th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $5.00. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PBYI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (24th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $5.00. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$5.86 -
$6.88
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
24th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 24th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 17.8% above Wall St target ($5.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$5.86 -
$6.88
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.02
(16.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.95
Resistance Level
$6.52
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.35
Wall Street Target
$5.00
(-17.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
27.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-34.4%
Profit Margin
13.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.4 vs 10.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.79
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$5.51
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$5.25
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→11)
$6.06
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 62.5%)
$49.14
(+708%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.4, Growth: 62.5%)
$20.52
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.0, Growth: 62.5%)
$17.44
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.03 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.61
Bull Case
$7.17
(+15%)
Analyst growth 6.6%, PE expands to 11.0
Base Case
$6.52
(+4%)
Market implied 6.6%, PE stable at 10.0
Bear Case
$4.16
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.4 to 10.8
Stabilization Target:
$7.02
(+15.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 10:13 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:13 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:13 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PBYI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Alan H Auerbach
SELL
18012 shares
2026-01-07
Douglas M Hunt
SELL
5014 shares
2026-01-07
Alan H Auerbach
SELL
16938 shares
2026-01-06
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