PEN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PEN - Penumbra, Inc.
$358.17
1.17 (0.33%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 17, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PEN is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: PEN is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$245.70
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$152.56
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PEN is currently trading at $358.17, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $310.22 to $351.71. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 70.7) compared to its historical average (63.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PEN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $349.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PEN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PEN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $349.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PEN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$310.22 -
$351.71
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
Protect Your Profits
PEN is technically overbought (RSI 71). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($348.53)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$310.22 -
$351.71
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$349.12
Resistance Level
$362.41
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
70.74
Wall Street Target
$348.53
(-2.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
56.0%
Profit Margin
12.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.8% premium
PE vs Historical
70.7 vs 63.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$370.57
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$384.65
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$399.26
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 71→63)
PE COMPRESSION
$356.73
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 70.7, Growth: 33.4%)
$846.94
(+137%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 33.4%)
$267.00
(-25%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 33.4%)
$226.95
(-36%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (85x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (71x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 85.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.20
Bull Case
$474.57
(+33%)
Analyst growth 20.2%, PE expands to 94.0
Base Case
$431.43
(+21%)
Market implied 20.2%, PE stable at 85.5
Bear Case
$244.14
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 72.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 10:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PEN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
12
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Harpreet Grewal
SELL
186 shares
2025-10-02
Thomas Wilder
SELL
186 shares
2025-10-01
Johanna Roberts
SELL
600 shares
2025-10-01
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