RAIL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RAIL - FreightCar America, Inc.
$11.51
-0.13 (-1.12%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 11, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: RAIL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: RAIL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.39
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.66
9.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RAIL is currently trading at $11.51, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.69 to $11.74. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 15.1) compared to its historical average (13.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RAIL is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $10.74, while resistance sits at $12.31.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.33 (+31.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RAIL is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $10.74, while resistance sits at $12.31.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.33 (+31.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$10.69 -
$11.74
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.7% below Wall St target ($15.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$10.69 -
$11.74
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.08
(9.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.74
Resistance Level
$12.31
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.12
Wall Street Target
$15.33
(+31.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
41.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
207.9%
Profit Margin
17.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.6% premium
PE vs Historical
15.1 vs 13.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.06
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$12.49
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$12.94
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$11.64
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 40.0%)
$47.12
(+305%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.1, Growth: 40.0%)
$31.94
(+174%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.8, Growth: 40.0%)
$27.15
(+133%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.77 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.52
Bull Case
$6.61
(-43%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 5.3
Base Case
$6.01
(-48%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 4.8
Bear Case
$8.17
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RAIL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced RAIL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's RAIL price and gamma walls.
