RPD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RPD - Rapid7, Inc. Common Stock
$11.92
0.19 (1.62%)
▲
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 10, 2026
9d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: RPD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: RPD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$14.62
Based on 0.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.08
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RPD is currently trading at $11.92, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.75 to $15.02. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.9) compared to its historical average (7.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RPD is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.53, while resistance sits at $13.33.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.43 (+57.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RPD is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.53, while resistance sits at $13.33.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.43 (+57.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$12.75 -
$15.02
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding RPD? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 57.1% below Wall St target ($18.43)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.2% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$12.75 -
$15.02
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.53
Resistance Level
$13.33
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.92
Wall Street Target
$18.43
(+57.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-28.6%
Profit Margin
2.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.9 vs 7.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.92
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$10.17
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$9.47
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$11.67
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -3.5%)
$39.66
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.9, Growth: -3.5%)
$10.53
(-10%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.0, Growth: -3.5%)
$8.95
(-24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 35.80 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.35
Bull Case
$27.57
(+131%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 39.4
Base Case
$25.06
(+110%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 35.8
Bear Case
$8.52
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 30.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.9 to 7.3
Stabilization Target:
$14.46
(+23.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.3%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 7:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:47 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RPD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
2
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Scott M Murphy
SELL
826 shares
2025-10-22
Scott M Murphy
SELL
1370 shares
2025-08-22
Jana Partners Management…
BUY
250000 shares
2025-08-13
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