SMBK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMBK - SmartFinancial, Inc.
$39.08
0.40 (1.03%)
▲
5d:
+1.48%
30d:
-1.83%
90d:
+4.49%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 20, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SMBK shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SMBK shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$66.79
Based on 9.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$41.47
5.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMBK is currently trading at $39.08, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.84 to $40.04. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.6) is in line with its historical norms (10.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 42.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMBK is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $39.32. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SMBK has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.50 (+13.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMBK is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $39.32. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SMBK has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.50 (+13.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$37.84 -
$40.04
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
31th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 31th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($44.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$37.84 -
$40.04
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.25
(8.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.98
Resistance Level
$39.32
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.61
Wall Street Target
$44.50
(+13.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
42.0%
Profit Margin
26.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.6 vs 10.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.06
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$37.07
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$36.11
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$39.06
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 15.3%)
$139.13
(+256%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.6, Growth: 15.3%)
$59.85
(+53%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 15.3%)
$50.87
(+30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.98
Bull Case
$55.83
(+44%)
Analyst growth 36.4%, PE expands to 13.7
Base Case
$50.76
(+31%)
Market implied 36.4%, PE stable at 12.5
Bear Case
$25.30
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.6 to 10.4
Stabilization Target:
$42.28
(+8.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 8:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMBK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
2
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Wesley Miller Welborn
BUY
835 shares
2026-02-09
Kelli D Shomaker
BUY
255 shares
2026-01-27
Steven B Tucker
SELL
10625 shares
2025-12-10
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Advanced SMBK Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SMBK price and gamma walls.
