SRBK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SRBK - SR Bancorp, Inc. Common stock
$16.64
0.00 (0.00%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Jan 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SRBK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SRBK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$27.75
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.23
3.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SRBK is currently trading at $16.64, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.97 to $16.76. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 29.2) is in line with its historical norms (29.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SRBK is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.32. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SRBK is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.32. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$15.97 -
$16.76
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($16.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$15.97 -
$16.76
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.33
Resistance Level
$17.10
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
29.19
Wall Street Target
$16.50
(-0.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-43.1%
Profit Margin
14.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
29.2 vs 29.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.59
(0%)
2-Year Target
$16.54
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$16.49
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 29→30)
$16.66
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 29.2, Growth: 54.1%)
$56.16
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 54.1%)
$42.90
(+158%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 54.1%)
$36.46
(+119%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (29x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.54
Bull Case
$19.44
(+17%)
Analyst growth 5.6%, PE expands to 34.1
Base Case
$17.67
(+6%)
Market implied 5.6%, PE stable at 31.0
Bear Case
$11.38
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 29.2 to 29.5
Stabilization Target:
$16.81
(+1.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.1%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 11:15 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:15 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:15 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SRBK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced SRBK Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SRBK price and gamma walls.