SSD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SSD - Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc.
$166.13
-4.93 (-2.88%)
▼
5d:
-2.92%
30d:
-13.22%
90d:
+2.88%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 27, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SSD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SSD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$269.95
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$167.62
0.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SSD is currently trading at $166.12, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $170.54 to $190.07. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.4) compared to its historical average (19.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SSD is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $163.96. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SSD has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (13th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $213.00 (+24.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SSD is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $163.96. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SSD has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (13th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $213.00 (+24.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$170.54 -
$190.07
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
13th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 13th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.5% below Wall St target ($213.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$170.54 -
$190.07
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$6.84
(4.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$163.96
Resistance Level
$176.32
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.38
Wall Street Target
$213.00
(+24.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.0%
Profit Margin
14.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.4 vs 19.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$164.89
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$158.96
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$153.23
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→19)
$171.01
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 10.4%)
$295.90
(+73%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.4, Growth: 10.4%)
$230.14
(+35%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.8, Growth: 10.4%)
$195.62
(+14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.23
Bull Case
$219.66
(+28%)
Analyst growth 19.6%, PE expands to 22.3
Base Case
$199.69
(+17%)
Market implied 19.6%, PE stable at 20.3
Bear Case
$113.57
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.4 to 19.4
Stabilization Target:
$190.90
(+11.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 1:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SSD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Philip E Donaldson
SELL
2375 shares
2025-12-12
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2025-10-09
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