STEL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STEL - Stellar Bancorp, Inc.
$37.14
0.26 (0.70%)
▲
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 24, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: STEL is 11.9% above fair value ($33.20). Market expects 1.6% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: STEL is 11.9% above fair value ($33.20). Market expects 1.6% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$68.89
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$42.78
13.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STEL is currently trading at $37.14, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.84 to $33.20. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.7) is in line with its historical norms (15.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STEL is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $37.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: STEL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $32.40. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STEL is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $37.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: STEL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $32.40. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$30.84 -
$33.20
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
43.8%
Protect Your Profits
STEL is technically overbought (RSI 77). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+11.9% above fair value)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 12.8% above Wall St target ($32.40)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$30.84 -
$33.20
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.75
Resistance Level
$37.42
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.69
Wall Street Target
$32.40
(-12.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.6%
Profit Margin
24.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
16.7 vs 15.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.73
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$38.34
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$38.95
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$37.10
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 67.9%)
$50.63
(+36%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.7, Growth: 67.9%)
$37.90
(+2%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.2, Growth: 67.9%)
$32.22
(-13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.99
Bull Case
$43.28
(+17%)
Analyst growth 8.0%, PE expands to 20.1
Base Case
$39.35
(+6%)
Market implied 8.0%, PE stable at 18.3
Bear Case
$24.77
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 01, 2026 5:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STEL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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