STNE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STNE - StoneCo Ltd. Class A Common Shares
$13.95
-0.41 (-2.86%)
▼
5d:
-0.36%
30d:
-2.38%
90d:
-5.68%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: STNE appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.8% annual earnings decline despite 46% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: STNE appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.8% annual earnings decline despite 46% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.92
Based on 10.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.95
22.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STNE is currently trading at $13.95, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.33 to $15.76. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.1) compared to its historical average (1.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 46.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STNE is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $13.10, while resistance sits at $14.56.
Market Sentiment: STNE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.88 (+38.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STNE is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $13.10, while resistance sits at $14.56.
Market Sentiment: STNE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.88 (+38.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$13.33 -
$15.76
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 38.4% below Wall St target ($19.88)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$13.33 -
$15.76
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.10
Resistance Level
$14.56
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.14
Wall Street Target
$19.88
(+38.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
46.1%
Profit Margin
17.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.1 vs 1.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.53
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$12.74
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$12.00
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→1)
$14.77
(+3%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 16.9%)
$450.33
(+3036%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.1, Growth: 16.9%)
$22.93
(+60%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.0, Growth: 16.9%)
$19.49
(+36%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.06 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.89
Bull Case
$29.37
(+109%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 7.8
Base Case
$26.70
(+90%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 7.1
Bear Case
$9.08
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.1 to 1.4
Stabilization Target:
$17.67
(+23.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 3:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:48 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STNE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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