TBPH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TBPH - Theravance Biopharma, Inc.
$18.94
-0.24 (-1.25%)
▼
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 25, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TBPH is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: TBPH is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.53
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.68
16.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TBPH is currently trading at $18.94, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.58 to $20.10. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.3) is in line with its historical norms (11.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TBPH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.83. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.71 (+39.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TBPH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.83. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.71 (+39.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$18.58 -
$20.10
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TBPH? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 39.3% below Wall St target ($26.71)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.4% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$18.58 -
$20.10
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.06
(10.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.83
Resistance Level
$21.03
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.35
Wall Street Target
$26.71
(+39.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.5%
Profit Margin
36.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.7% premium
PE vs Historical
11.4 vs 11.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.31
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$19.45
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$19.59
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$19.16
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 1348.2%)
$127.19
(+563%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.3, Growth: 1348.2%)
$64.73
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: 1348.2%)
$55.02
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 33.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.57
Bull Case
$41.87
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 36.7
Base Case
$38.06
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 33.4
Bear Case
$12.94
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 7:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:34 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TBPH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced TBPH Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TBPH price and gamma walls.
