TOST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TOST - Toast, Inc.
$25.83
0.19 (0.74%)
▲
5d:
-6.28%
30d:
-5.42%
90d:
-29.12%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
TOST is down 6.5% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $32 2026-05-15 with 7,228 OI. Call ratio: 69% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TOST shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TOST shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$74.65
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.35
44.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TOST is currently trading at $25.83, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.33 to $29.00. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.7) compared to its historical average (23.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 228.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOST is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.26. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TOST has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.22 (+45.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOST is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.26. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TOST has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.22 (+45.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$26.33 -
$29.00
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TOST? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 45.2% below Wall St target ($37.22)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-6.3%) - monitor closely
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$26.33 -
$29.00
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.26
Resistance Level
$29.11
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.72
Wall Street Target
$37.22
(+45.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
228.2%
Profit Margin
5.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.7 vs 23.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.08
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$20.77
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$18.69
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→24)
$27.94
(+9%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 27.0%)
$74.81
(+192%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.7, Growth: 27.0%)
$52.50
(+105%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.4, Growth: 27.0%)
$44.62
(+74%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (49x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 49.04 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.56
Bull Case
$60.41
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 53.9
Base Case
$54.92
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 49.0
Bear Case
$18.67
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 41.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.7 to 23.5
Stabilization Target:
$38.33
(+49.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+49.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 1:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TOST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Brian R Elworthy
SELL
648 shares
2026-02-03
Elena Gomez
SELL
1437 shares
2026-02-03
Jonathan Vassil
SELL
1454 shares
2026-02-03
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