Is TOST stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, TOST is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: TOST shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of TOST stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for TOST to be between $32.89 and $36.46. The current price is $31.11.

What is the analyst price target for TOST?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for TOST is $46.62. This implies a potential upside of 49.9% from current levels.

TOST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TOST - Toast, Inc.

SERVICES-COMPUTER PROCESSING & DATA PREPARATION

$31.11

0.02 (0.06%) ▲

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your TOST Gains

Last Updated: January 30, 2026

Earnings: Feb 12, 2026 10d

Smart Money Accumulation

TOST is down 8.0% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $38 2026-03-20 with 6,101 OI. Call ratio: 64% View Scanner →

Strength: 5.4/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TOST shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 22.5%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$57.34

Based on 13.3% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$35.60

12.6% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TOST is currently trading at $31.11, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.89 to $36.46. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 25.1) compared to its historical average (28.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 137.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TOST is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $30.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: TOST has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.62 (+49.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Fair Price Range $32.89 - $36.46

Company Quality Score 55/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 57.1%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 49.9% below Wall St target ($46.62)
CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-8.0%) - monitor closely

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $32.89 - $36.46

Current vs Fair Value OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $30.72

Resistance Level $34.52

Current Trend Downtrend

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 25.06

Wall Street Target $46.63 (+49.9%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 25.1%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 137.4%

Profit Margin 4.7%

Valuation Discount vs History -3.6% cheaper

PE vs Historical 25.1 vs 28.0 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -3.6% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $29.99 (-4%)

2-Year Target $28.91 (-7%)

3-Year Target $27.87 (-10%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 25→28) $31.14 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 25.1, Growth: 22.5%) $57.13 (+84%)

Base: (SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 22.5%) $50.84 (+63%)

Bear: (PE: 19.0, Growth: 22.5%) $43.22 (+39%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Forward PE: 24.69 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.26

Bull Case $37.57 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 25.9

Base Case $31.11 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 24.7

Bear Case $23.80 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 22.2

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 25.1 to 28.0

Stabilization Target: $34.76 (+11.7%)

PE Expansion Potential: +11.7%

Last updated: January 31, 2026 11:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:18 AM

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Technical Signals Check

Is TOST showing a specific setup today?

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Brian R Elworthy SELL 4987 shares 2025-10-02

Aman Narang SELL 13652 shares 2025-10-02

Stephen Fredette SELL 7550 shares 2025-10-02

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Advanced TOST Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TOST price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

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