TREE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TREE - LendingTree, Inc.
$56.66
-1.85 (-3.16%)
▼
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 02, 2026
29d
Smart Money Accumulation
TREE is down 9.2% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $55 2026-03-20 with 111 OI. Call ratio: 92% View Scanner →
Strength: 8.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TREE is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: TREE is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$72.25
Based on 5.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$44.86
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TREE is currently trading at $56.66, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $53.60 to $64.12. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.7) is in line with its historical norms (11.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TREE is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $55.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (23th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $81.33 (+39.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TREE is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $55.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (23th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $81.33 (+39.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$53.60 -
$64.12
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
23th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TREE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 23th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 39.0% below Wall St target ($81.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -9.2% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$53.60 -
$64.12
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$6.07
(10.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$55.91
Resistance Level
$68.84
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.74
Wall Street Target
$81.33
(+39.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
12.1%
Profit Margin
1.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.4% premium
PE vs Historical
11.7 vs 11.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$59.33
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$60.16
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$61.00
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$58.19
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 6.6%)
$134.54
(+130%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.7, Growth: 6.6%)
$70.83
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: 6.6%)
$60.21
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 10.89 | Forward EPS (Implied): $5.20
Bull Case
$68.42
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 11.4
Base Case
$56.66
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 10.9
Bear Case
$43.34
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 9.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 9:32 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:32 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:32 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TREE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Diego A Rodriguez
SELL
1200 shares
2025-08-25
Jason Bengel
SELL
6469 shares
2025-08-25
Heather Enlow-Novitsky
SELL
1000 shares
2025-08-22
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Advanced TREE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TREE price and gamma walls.
