TWLO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TWLO - Twilio Inc.
$120.46
-3.26 (-2.63%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 12, 2026
11d
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2 traders called TWLO this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TWLO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TWLO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$201.00
Based on 8.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$124.81
3.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TWLO is currently trading at $120.46, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $124.40 to $141.06. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.7) is in line with its historical norms (24.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TWLO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $116.11, while resistance sits at $137.64.
Market Sentiment: TWLO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $145.77 (+17.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TWLO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $116.11, while resistance sits at $137.64.
Market Sentiment: TWLO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $145.77 (+17.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$124.40 -
$141.06
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TWLO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($145.77)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-6.1%) - monitor closely
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$124.40 -
$141.06
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$116.11
Resistance Level
$137.64
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.71
Wall Street Target
$145.77
(+17.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.7%
Profit Margin
1.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.7 vs 24.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$121.12
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$118.58
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$116.09
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→24)
$123.73
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.7, Growth: 13.7%)
$181.86
(+47%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 13.7%)
$178.61
(+44%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 13.7%)
$151.82
(+23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 24.94 | Forward EPS (Implied): $4.83
Bull Case
$145.46
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 26.2
Base Case
$120.46
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 24.9
Bear Case
$92.15
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 22.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.7 to 24.2
Stabilization Target:
$131.87
(+6.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.6%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 10:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TWLO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
8035 shares
2025-10-09
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12922 shares
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8363 shares
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Advanced TWLO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TWLO price and gamma walls.
