TWLO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TWLO - Twilio Inc.
$120.14
0.15 (0.12%)
▲
5d:
-5.47%
30d:
-0.68%
90d:
-14.47%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
TWLO is down 3.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $135 2026-06-18 with 611 OI. Call ratio: 66% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TWLO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TWLO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$234.14
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$145.38
17.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TWLO is currently trading at $120.14, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $115.65 to $127.75. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.8) compared to its historical average (21.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TWLO is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $118.80. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $143.43 (+19.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TWLO is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $118.80. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $143.43 (+19.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$115.65 -
$127.75
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TWLO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($143.43)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.5% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$115.65 -
$127.75
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$118.80
Resistance Level
$130.16
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.78
Wall Street Target
$143.43
(+19.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.3%
Profit Margin
0.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.8 vs 21.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$113.99
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$108.29
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$102.88
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→22)
$119.99
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 17.9%)
$234.48
(+95%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.8, Growth: 17.9%)
$196.55
(+64%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.0, Growth: 17.9%)
$167.06
(+39%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 22.99 | Forward EPS (Implied): $5.53
Bull Case
$153.46
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 24.1
Base Case
$127.09
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 23.0
Bear Case
$97.22
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 20.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.8 to 21.9
Stabilization Target:
$139.95
(+16.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 2:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:46 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TWLO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Aidan Viggiano
SELL
806 shares
2026-03-02
Aidan Viggiano
SELL
1023 shares
2026-02-17
Khozema Shipchandler
SELL
13336 shares
2026-01-06
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Advanced TWLO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TWLO price and gamma walls.
