UFPI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UFPI - UFP Industries, Inc. Common Stock
$89.98
0.30 (0.33%)
▲
5d:
+0.67%
30d:
-12.56%
90d:
-3.07%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 27, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UFPI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UFPI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$164.11
Based on 9.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$101.90
11.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UFPI is currently trading at $89.98, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $88.39 to $102.07. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.6) compared to its historical average (16.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UFPI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $92.60. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (11th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $111.80 (+24.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UFPI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $92.60. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (11th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $111.80 (+24.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$88.39 -
$102.07
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
11th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 11th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.2% below Wall St target ($111.80)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$88.39 -
$102.07
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.26
(3.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$84.82
Resistance Level
$92.60
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.62
Wall Street Target
$111.80
(+24.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-9.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-39.7%
Profit Margin
4.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.6 vs 16.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$86.02
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$82.24
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$78.62
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→17)
$90.36
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 15.5%)
$211.98
(+136%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.6, Growth: 15.5%)
$138.63
(+54%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.4, Growth: 15.5%)
$117.84
(+31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.36 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.00
Bull Case
$117.53
(+32%)
Analyst growth 23.1%, PE expands to 19.1
Base Case
$106.84
(+20%)
Market implied 23.1%, PE stable at 17.4
Bear Case
$59.01
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.6 to 16.8
Stabilization Target:
$103.42
(+14.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 5:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UFPI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Matthew J Missad
SELL
11000 shares
2025-12-11
Michael G Wooldridge
SELL
1192 shares
2025-11-26
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