VALE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VALE - VALE S.A.
$16.07
-0.87 (-5.14%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 18, 2026
16d
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: VALE is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: VALE is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.92
Based on 3.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.75
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VALE is currently trading at $16.07, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.25 to $15.73. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.3) is in line with its historical norms (7.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VALE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $14.35, while resistance sits at $17.34. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: VALE has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VALE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $14.35, while resistance sits at $17.34. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: VALE has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$13.25 -
$15.73
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding VALE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.1%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($15.48)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$13.25 -
$15.73
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.35
Resistance Level
$17.34
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.27
Wall Street Target
$15.48
(-3.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Profit Margin
14.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.7% premium
PE vs Historical
7.3 vs 7.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.18
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$16.30
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$16.41
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$16.03
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 3.6%)
$54.81
(+241%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.3, Growth: 3.6%)
$17.86
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.2, Growth: 3.6%)
$15.18
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.99 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.29
Bull Case
$30.81
(+92%)
Analyst growth 67.1%, PE expands to 14.3
Base Case
$28.01
(+74%)
Market implied 67.1%, PE stable at 13.0
Bear Case
$11.40
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 9:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:38 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:38 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VALE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced VALE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's VALE price and gamma walls.
