Is VRNS stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, VRNS is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: VRNS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of VRNS stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for VRNS to be between $22.11 and $24.51. The current price is $21.17.

What is the analyst price target for VRNS?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for VRNS is $33.90. This implies a potential upside of 60.2% from current levels.

VRNS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

VRNS - Varonis Systems, Inc.

SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

$21.17

-0.04 (-0.19%) ▼

5d: -10.75%

30d: -8.35%

90d: -36.96%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your VRNS Gains

Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: May 05, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

VRNS is down 9.1% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $30 2026-06-18 with 2,316 OI. Call ratio: 92% View Scanner →

Strength: 8.8/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: VRNS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$20.19

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$12.54

Trading above fair value

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: VRNS is currently trading at $21.17, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.11 to $24.51. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 51.0) compared to its historical average (81.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 14.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, VRNS is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $20.47, while resistance sits at $25.45.

Market Sentiment: VRNS has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.90 (+60.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Fair Price Range $22.11 - $24.51

Company Quality Score 52/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 57.1%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 60.2% below Wall St target ($33.90)
CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-10.8%) - monitor closely

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $22.11 - $24.51

Current vs Fair Value OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $20.47

Resistance Level $25.45

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Mar 30, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 51.04

Wall Street Target $33.90 (+60.2%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 9.4%

Profit Margin -20.7%

Valuation Discount vs History -14.3% cheaper

PE vs Historical 51.0 vs 81.2 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -14.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $19.05 (-10%)

2-Year Target $17.15 (-19%)

3-Year Target $15.43 (-27%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 51→81) $24.55 (+16%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 51.0, Growth: 398.0%) $71.45 (+238%)

Base: (SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 398.0%) $31.29 (+48%)

Bear: (PE: 19.0, Growth: 398.0%) $26.60 (+26%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 51.0 to 81.2

Stabilization Target: $33.68 (+59.1%)

PE Expansion Potential: +59.1%

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Last updated: March 31, 2026 6:43 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:43 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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INSIDERS BUYING

Recent Transactions

David Bass BUY 2980 shares 2026-02-09

Avrohom J Kess BUY 17800 shares 2026-02-06

John J Gavin Jr BUY 5000 shares 2026-02-06

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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's VRNS price and gamma walls.

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