VRNS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VRNS - Varonis Systems, Inc.
$29.84
-0.73 (-2.39%)
▼
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 03, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: VRNS is down 14.6% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: VRNS is down 14.6% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$16.65
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.34
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VRNS is currently trading at $29.84, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.27 to $35.09. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 89.4) compared to its historical average (100.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VRNS is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $29.86. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.85 (+59.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VRNS is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $29.86. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.85 (+59.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$32.27 -
$35.09
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding VRNS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 59.8% below Wall St target ($48.85)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -14.6% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$32.27 -
$35.09
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$29.87
Resistance Level
$36.34
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
89.41
Wall Street Target
$48.85
(+59.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Profit Margin
-18.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
89.4 vs 100.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$29.38
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$28.23
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$27.13
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 89→101)
$30.56
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 89.4, Growth: 169.0%)
$103.17
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 169.0%)
$25.73
(-16%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 169.0%)
$21.87
(-29%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 89.4 to 100.7
Stabilization Target:
$34.43
(+12.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.6%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 3:47 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:47 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:47 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VRNS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Guy Melamed
SELL
1500 shares
2025-08-29
Guy Melamed
SELL
3892 shares
2025-08-28
Guy Melamed
SELL
10400 shares
2025-08-22
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Advanced VRNS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's VRNS price and gamma walls.
