VRTX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VRTX - Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc
$433.07
-20.67 (-4.56%)
▼
5d:
-4.61%
30d:
-9.8%
90d:
-6.44%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 04, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
VRTX is down 3.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $560 2026-06-18 with 1,004 OI. Call ratio: 73% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: VRTX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: VRTX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$756.08
Based on 9.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$469.47
7.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VRTX is currently trading at $433.07, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $453.74 to $485.00. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.7) compared to its historical average (22.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 32.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VRTX is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $439.21. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: VRTX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $547.72 (+26.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VRTX is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $439.21. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: VRTX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $547.72 (+26.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$453.74 -
$485.00
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding VRTX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 26.5% below Wall St target ($547.72)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$453.74 -
$485.00
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$439.21
Resistance Level
$476.17
Current Trend
Support Break
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.73
Wall Street Target
$547.72
(+26.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.9%
Profit Margin
32.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.7 vs 22.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$416.61
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$400.78
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$385.55
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→22)
$433.75
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 14.5%)
$738.90
(+71%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.7, Growth: 14.5%)
$650.93
(+50%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.8, Growth: 14.5%)
$553.29
(+28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.68 | Current EPS (TTM): $15.30
Bull Case
$716.47
(+59%)
Analyst growth 43.4%, PE expands to 32.7
Base Case
$651.34
(+44%)
Market implied 43.4%, PE stable at 29.7
Bear Case
$308.78
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.7 to 22.2
Stabilization Target:
$487.21
(+12.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 7:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VRTX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Carmen Bozic
SELL
2329 shares
2026-03-13
Amit Sachdev
SELL
1846 shares
2026-02-25
Duncan Mckechnie
SELL
4910 shares
2026-02-25
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Advanced VRTX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's VRTX price and gamma walls.
