AA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AA - Alcoa Corporation
$61.35
3.14 (5.39%)
▲
5d:
+2.83%
30d:
+8.51%
90d:
+66.76%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: February 3, 2026
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
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5 traders called AA this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$86.00
Based on 4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$53.40
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AA is currently trading at $61.35, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $56.77 to $64.04. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.7) compared to its historical average (13.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 12.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AA is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $55.92, while resistance sits at $65.00. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AA is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $55.92, while resistance sits at $65.00. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$56.77 -
$64.04
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.4%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($61.08)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$56.77 -
$64.04
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$55.93
Resistance Level
$65.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.73
Wall Street Target
$61.08
(-0.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
12.1%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.7 vs 13.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$59.14
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$57.01
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$54.96
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$61.38
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 5.3%)
$136.35
(+122%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.7, Growth: 5.3%)
$71.71
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: 5.3%)
$60.96
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.85 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.53
Bull Case
$73.94
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.5%, PE expands to 14.1
Base Case
$67.21
(+10%)
Market implied 15.5%, PE stable at 12.9
Bear Case
$39.58
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.7 to 13.1
Stabilization Target:
$68.52
(+11.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.7%
Last updated: February 04, 2026 12:34 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:34 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:34 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2025-08-21
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