CSTM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CSTM - Constellium SE Class A Ordinary shares
$33.88
1.01 (3.07%)
▲
5d:
+5.84%
30d:
+14.96%
90d:
+36.94%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 8, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
CSTM is up 6.0% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $27 2026-06-18 with 333 OI. Put ratio: 71% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CSTM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CSTM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.45
Based on -6.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.80
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CSTM is currently trading at $33.88, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.60 to $32.38. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.4) is in line with its historical norms (14.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 446.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CSTM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $33.89. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: CSTM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.69 (+11.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CSTM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $33.89. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: CSTM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.69 (+11.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$27.60 -
$32.38
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
64.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($37.69)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$27.60 -
$32.38
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.41
Resistance Level
$33.89
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 8, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.41
Wall Street Target
$37.69
(+11.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
446.9%
Profit Margin
4.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.4 vs 14.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.41
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$32.94
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$32.48
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→14)
$33.91
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: -16.2%)
$40.42
(+19%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.4, Growth: -16.2%)
$24.70
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.4, Growth: -16.2%)
$20.99
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.13
Bull Case
$29.19
(-14%)
Analyst growth -19.3%, PE expands to 11.6
Base Case
$26.54
(-22%)
Market implied -19.3%, PE stable at 10.5
Bear Case
$22.35
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.4 to 14.0
Stabilization Target:
$35.38
(+4.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 10, 2026 3:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:05 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:05 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CSTM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
13
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
4614 shares
2026-03-10
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SELL
41717 shares
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1113 shares
2026-03-10
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