AAPL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AAPL - Apple Inc.
$259.48
1.20 (0.46%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Jan 29, 2026
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66 traders called AAPL this week
90% bullish • 11 bearish
90% bullish • 11 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AAPL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AAPL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$323.49
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$200.86
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AAPL is currently trading at $259.48, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $253.07 to $270.13. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 28.3) is in line with its historical norms (31.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 91.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAPL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $261.95. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $287.29 (+11.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAPL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $261.95. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $287.29 (+11.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$253.07 -
$270.13
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($287.29)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$253.07 -
$270.13
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$243.42
Resistance Level
$261.95
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
28.29
Wall Street Target
$287.29
(+11.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
91.2%
Profit Margin
26.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
28.3 vs 31.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$250.27
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$242.51
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$235.00
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→31)
$258.32
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.3, Growth: 10.5%)
$348.18
(+35%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 10.5%)
$274.44
(+6%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 10.5%)
$233.27
(-10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (28x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.46
Bull Case
$347.66
(+35%)
Analyst growth 22.4%, PE expands to 38.1
Base Case
$316.05
(+22%)
Market implied 22.4%, PE stable at 34.6
Bear Case
$175.62
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 28.3 to 31.1
Stabilization Target:
$283.92
(+9.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.9%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AAPL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
11
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
4199 shares
2025-10-16
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43013 shares
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47125 shares
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