ABCB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ABCB - Ameris Bancorp

STATE COMMERCIAL BANKS
$77.99
1.46 (1.91%) β–²
5d: +1.87%
30d: -1.68%
90d: +2.81%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 27, 2026 26d

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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πŸ’‘
Bottom Line:
βœ… BUY SIGNAL: ABCB shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$107.15
Based on 5.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$66.53
Trading above fair value

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.9x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ABCB is currently trading at $77.99, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $75.01 to $79.80. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.0) is in line with its historical norms (11.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 16.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ABCB is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $77.95. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: ABCB has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $89.93 (+17.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR
Fair Price Range $75.01 - $79.80
Company Quality Score 59/100 (HOLD)
Options IV Signal 50th percentile (NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 78.8%

All Signals

  • NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
  • NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
  • BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($89.93)

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $75.01 - $79.80
Current vs Fair Value FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days) Β±$3.18 (4.1%)

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $73.20
Resistance Level $77.95
Current Trend Uptrend
Technical data as of Mar 31, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 11.03
Wall Street Target $89.93 (+17.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 3.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 16.9%
Profit Margin 36.2%
Valuation Discount vs History -2.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical 11.0 vs 11.9 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -2.6% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $74.54 (-3%)
2-Year Target $72.60 (-5%)
3-Year Target $70.71 (-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 11β†’12) $76.31 (0%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 22.4, Growth: 6.7%) $188.35 (+146%)
Base: (SPY PE: 11.0, Growth: 6.7%) $92.93 (+21%)
Bear: (PE: 9.4, Growth: 6.7%) $78.99 (+3%)
πŸ“ˆ Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.41 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.00
Bull Case $94.78 (+25%)
Analyst growth 15.7%, PE expands to 13.7
Base Case $86.16 (+14%)
Market implied 15.7%, PE stable at 12.4
Bear Case $50.65 (-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
πŸ’‘ Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.0 to 11.9
Stabilization Target: $82.59 (+7.9%)
PE Expansion Potential: +7.9%
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Last updated: March 31, 2026 3:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:48 PM
πŸ”₯ Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Technical Signals Check
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Leo J Hill SELL 2026-03-09
Douglas D Strange SELL 1 shares 2026-02-24
Nicole S Stokes SELL 1 shares 2026-02-24

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