UMBF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UMBF - UMB Financial Corp
$124.65
-2.57 (-2.02%)
▼
5d:
-5.11%
30d:
+3.4%
90d:
-3.2%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UMBF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: UMBF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$169.41
Based on 5.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$105.19
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UMBF is currently trading at $124.65, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $119.98 to $129.14. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.1) is in line with its historical norms (9.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 176.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMBF is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $123.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $147.08 (+18.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMBF is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $123.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $147.08 (+18.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$119.98 -
$129.14
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($147.08)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.1% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$119.98 -
$129.14
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$123.70
Resistance Level
$134.67
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.10
Wall Street Target
$147.08
(+18.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
49.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
176.9%
Profit Margin
32.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.1 vs 9.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$122.66
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$120.69
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$118.76
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$125.29
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 6.4%)
$363.84
(+192%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.1, Growth: 6.4%)
$150.02
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.7, Growth: 6.4%)
$127.52
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.42
Bull Case
$167.85
(+35%)
Analyst growth 19.9%, PE expands to 12.3
Base Case
$152.59
(+22%)
Market implied 19.9%, PE stable at 11.1
Bear Case
$86.51
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.1 to 9.6
Stabilization Target:
$131.50
(+5.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 9:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:21 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UMBF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kevin Charles Gallagher
SELL
388 shares
2026-02-03
Greg M Graves
BUY
220 shares
2026-02-02
J Mariner Kemper
SELL
3500 shares
2026-02-02
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