UMBF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UMBF - UMB Financial Corp
$143.80
-1.85 (-1.27%)
▼
5d:
+0.27%
30d:
+11.31%
90d:
+25.43%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UMBF is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: UMBF is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$168.26
Based on 5.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$104.48
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UMBF is currently trading at $143.80, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $129.43 to $140.75. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.5) is in line with its historical norms (9.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMBF is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $134.86. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UMBF has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMBF is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $134.86. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UMBF has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$129.43 -
$140.75
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($151.58)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$129.43 -
$140.75
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$125.99
Resistance Level
$134.86
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.49
Wall Street Target
$151.58
(+5.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
49.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
176.9%
Profit Margin
32.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.0% premium
PE vs Historical
10.5 vs 9.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$148.11
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$152.56
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$157.13
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$143.74
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 6.1%)
$356.40
(+148%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.5, Growth: 6.1%)
$171.73
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.9, Growth: 6.1%)
$145.97
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.43
Bull Case
$192.07
(+34%)
Analyst growth 19.9%, PE expands to 14.0
Base Case
$174.61
(+21%)
Market implied 19.9%, PE stable at 12.7
Bear Case
$99.04
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 12:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:55 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UMBF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kevin Charles Gallagher
SELL
388 shares
2026-02-03
Greg M Graves
BUY
220 shares
2026-02-02
J Mariner Kemper
SELL
3500 shares
2026-02-02
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