ALGN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALGN - Align Technology Inc
$166.26
-0.12 (-0.07%)
▼
5d:
-8.07%
30d:
-12.54%
90d:
+4.98%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
28d
Smart Money Distribution
ALGN is up 5.9% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $115 2026-04-24 with 17 OI. Put ratio: 97% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ALGN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ALGN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$246.86
Based on 6.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$153.28
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALGN is currently trading at $166.26, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $172.20 to $187.41. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.5) is in line with its historical norms (14.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 35.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALGN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $163.78. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ALGN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $201.69 (+21.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALGN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $163.78. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ALGN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $201.69 (+21.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$172.20 -
$187.41
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ALGN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.3% below Wall St target ($201.69)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-8.1%) - monitor closely
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$172.20 -
$187.41
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$163.78
Resistance Level
$183.34
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.52
Wall Street Target
$201.69
(+21.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
35.6%
Profit Margin
10.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.5 vs 14.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$161.60
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$157.08
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$152.68
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→15)
$165.96
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 8.9%)
$354.66
(+113%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.5, Growth: 8.9%)
$214.60
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.5, Growth: 8.9%)
$182.41
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.65
Bull Case
$381.00
(+111%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 33.7
Base Case
$346.36
(+92%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 30.7
Bear Case
$117.76
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.5 to 14.7
Stabilization Target:
$180.72
(+8.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 7:27 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:27 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:27 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALGN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John Morici
SELL
7969 shares
2026-02-18
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-29
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Advanced ALGN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ALGN price and gamma walls.