ALGN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALGN - Align Technology Inc
$163.03
-1.09 (-0.66%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
4d
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1 traders called ALGN this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ALGN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ALGN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$217.21
Based on 6.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$134.87
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALGN is currently trading at $163.03, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $159.35 to $170.45. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.9) is in line with its historical norms (14.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALGN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $160.66. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $183.87 (+12.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALGN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $160.66. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $183.87 (+12.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$159.35 -
$170.45
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($183.87)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.5% growth with 1.8% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$159.35 -
$170.45
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$10.62
(6.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$160.66
Resistance Level
$174.67
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.89
Wall Street Target
$183.87
(+12.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-49.7%
Profit Margin
9.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.5% premium
PE vs Historical
14.9 vs 14.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$164.94
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$165.77
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$166.59
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$164.45
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 8.1%)
$310.75
(+89%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.9, Growth: 8.1%)
$207.51
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.7, Growth: 8.1%)
$176.39
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.16
Bull Case
$367.49
(+124%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 35.6
Base Case
$334.08
(+104%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 32.4
Bear Case
$113.59
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALGN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Lisa C. McClain
SELL
2025-09-11
Lisa C. McClain
BUY
2025-08-04
Ro Khanna
SELL
2025-08-04
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Advanced ALGN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ALGN price and gamma walls.