ALC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALC - Alcon Inc. Ordinary Shares
$69.66
2.84 (4.25%)
▲
5d:
+2.25%
30d:
+8.37%
90d:
-7.75%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 14.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 14.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$154.05
Based on 9.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$95.65
27.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALC is currently trading at $69.66, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $65.17 to $67.75. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.5) compared to its historical average (28.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 14.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALC is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $69.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: ALC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $87.92 (+26.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALC is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $69.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: ALC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $87.92 (+26.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$65.17 -
$67.75
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 26.2% below Wall St target ($87.92)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$65.17 -
$67.75
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$63.84
Resistance Level
$69.75
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.54
Wall Street Target
$87.92
(+26.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-44.6%
Profit Margin
7.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-14.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.5 vs 28.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-14.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$62.69
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$56.42
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$50.78
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→28)
$81.92
(+18%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 14.5%)
$129.91
(+87%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.5, Growth: 14.5%)
$104.64
(+50%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.9, Growth: 14.5%)
$88.94
(+28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 40.01 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.67
Bull Case
$147.00
(+111%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 44.0
Base Case
$133.64
(+92%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 40.0
Bear Case
$45.44
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.5 to 28.3
Stabilization Target:
$112.37
(+61.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+61.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 5:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:12 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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