ALC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALC - Alcon Inc. Ordinary Shares
$63.64
-0.36 (-0.56%)
▼
5d:
+1.73%
30d:
-20.0%
90d:
-19.65%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 19, 2026
TODAY
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ALC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ALC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$153.53
Based on 9.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$95.33
33.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALC is currently trading at $63.64, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $67.06 to $79.56. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.1) compared to its historical average (31.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 20.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $61.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ALC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $87.86 (+38.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $61.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ALC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $87.86 (+38.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$67.06 -
$79.56
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 38.1% below Wall St target ($87.86)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$67.06 -
$79.56
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$61.84
Resistance Level
$74.82
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.05
Wall Street Target
$87.86
(+38.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-44.6%
Profit Margin
7.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-20.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.1 vs 31.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-20.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$57.28
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$51.55
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$46.39
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→32)
$91.65
(+44%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 14.4%)
$131.13
(+106%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.0, Growth: 14.4%)
$95.34
(+50%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.6, Growth: 14.4%)
$81.04
(+27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (38x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 38.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.67
Bull Case
$140.80
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 42.2
Base Case
$128.00
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 38.3
Bear Case
$43.52
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.0 to 31.7
Stabilization Target:
$125.73
(+97.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+97.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 2:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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