AMGN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMGN - Amgen Inc
$341.88
-1.06 (-0.31%)
ā¼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 03, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
š” BUY OPPORTUNITY: AMGN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
š” BUY OPPORTUNITY: AMGN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$405.28
Based on 4.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$251.65
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMGN is currently trading at $341.88, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $325.96 to $342.47. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.5) is in line with its historical norms (15.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMGN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $321.71, while resistance sits at $353.25.
Market Sentiment: AMGN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMGN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $321.71, while resistance sits at $353.25.
Market Sentiment: AMGN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$325.96 -
$342.47
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($331.96)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$325.96 -
$342.47
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$321.71
Resistance Level
$353.25
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.51
Wall Street Target
$331.96
(-3.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.6%
Profit Margin
19.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
15.5 vs 15.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$346.03
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$349.14
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$352.28
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16ā15)
PE COMPRESSION
$343.01
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 3.9%)
$553.42
(+61%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.5, Growth: 3.9%)
$384.86
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.2, Growth: 3.9%)
$327.13
(-5%)
š
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.94
Bull Case
$643.31
(+88%)
Analyst growth 70.9%, PE expands to 29.1
Base Case
$584.83
(+71%)
Market implied 70.9%, PE stable at 26.5
Bear Case
$232.71
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 5:17 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:17 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:17 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMGN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2025-09-29
Lisa C. McClain
SELL
2025-09-25
Marjorie Taylor Greene
BUY
2025-09-11
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AMGN price and gamma walls.
