Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$2058.25
Based on 13.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1278.01
21.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
Valuation Analysis: LLY is currently trading at $1002.17, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $895.82 to $973.57. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.9) compared to its historical average (26.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 169.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LLY is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $1009.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: LLY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1209.14 (+19.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$895.82 -
$973.57
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.5%
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Eli Lilly is a drug firm with a focus on neuroscience, cardiometabolic, cancer, and immunology. Lilly's key products include Verzenio for cancer; Mounjaro, Zepbound, Jardiance, Trulicity, Humalog, and Humulin for cardiometabolic; and Taltz and Olumiant for immunology.
