APA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
APA - APA Corporation Common Stock
$43.74
-0.65 (-1.46%)
▼
5d:
+12.07%
30d:
+44.02%
90d:
+80.89%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: APA is 11.3% above fair value ($39.31). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: APA is 11.3% above fair value ($39.31). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.92
Based on -5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.71
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: APA is currently trading at $43.74, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.56 to $39.31. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 13.3) compared to its historical average (11.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APA is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $34.60, while resistance sits at $45.66.
Market Sentiment: APA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $35.39. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APA is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $34.60, while resistance sits at $45.66.
Market Sentiment: APA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $35.39. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$29.56 -
$39.31
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
Protect Your Profits
APA is technically overbought (RSI 85). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+11.3% above fair value)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 19.1% above Wall St target ($35.39)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.5% growth with -28.0% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$29.56 -
$39.31
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$34.60
Resistance Level
$45.66
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.32
Wall Street Target
$35.39
(-19.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-28.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-18.2%
Profit Margin
16.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.5% premium
PE vs Historical
13.3 vs 11.3
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$46.15
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$48.68
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$51.36
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$43.56
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: -15.9%)
$53.49
(+22%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.3, Growth: -15.9%)
$31.89
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.3, Growth: -15.9%)
$27.05
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.80 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.99
Bull Case
$29.45
(-25%)
Analyst growth -31.5%, PE expands to 10.8
Base Case
$26.77
(-31%)
Market implied -31.5%, PE stable at 9.8
Bear Case
$26.59
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 5:18 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:18 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:18 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is APA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-01-09
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