AR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AR - ANTERO RESOURCES CORPORATION
$42.44
-1.79 (-4.05%)
▼
5d:
-2.14%
30d:
+14.46%
90d:
+22.62%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
27d
Smart Money Distribution
AR is up 4.6% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $31 2026-04-17 with 29,443 OI. Put ratio: 62% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$54.17
Based on 4.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$33.64
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AR is currently trading at $42.44, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.34 to $43.20. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.7) is in line with its historical norms (9.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 29.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AR is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $40.13, while resistance sits at $45.75. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: AR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.86 (+10.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AR is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $40.13, while resistance sits at $45.75. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: AR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.86 (+10.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$36.34 -
$43.20
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
69.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($46.86)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$36.34 -
$43.20
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$40.13
Resistance Level
$45.75
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.71
Wall Street Target
$46.86
(+10.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.9%
Profit Margin
12.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.7 vs 9.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.27
(0%)
2-Year Target
$42.10
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$41.93
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$42.34
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 5.6%)
$115.10
(+171%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.7, Growth: 5.6%)
$49.98
(+18%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 5.6%)
$42.48
(+0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.03
Bull Case
$94.80
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 23.4
Base Case
$86.18
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 21.2
Bear Case
$29.30
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.7 to 9.8
Stabilization Target:
$42.85
(+1.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 01, 2026 12:38 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:38 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:38 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Yvette K Schultz
SELL
15000 shares
2026-03-09
Brendan E Krueger
BUY
5000 shares
2025-11-07
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Advanced AR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AR price and gamma walls.
