AR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AR - ANTERO RESOURCES CORPORATION
$36.37
1.07 (3.03%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 11, 2026
10d
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1 traders called AR this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$63.22
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.26
7.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AR is currently trading at $36.37, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.40 to $34.95. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.7) is in line with its historical norms (9.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AR is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $36.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: AR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.40 (+22.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AR is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $36.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: AR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.40 (+22.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$32.40 -
$34.95
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 22.9% below Wall St target ($43.40)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$32.40 -
$34.95
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.28
Resistance Level
$36.50
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.66
Wall Street Target
$43.40
(+22.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
842.9%
Profit Margin
11.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.9% premium
PE vs Historical
10.7 vs 9.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.32
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$37.38
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$38.46
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$35.37
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 80.3%)
$249.34
(+606%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.7, Growth: 80.3%)
$119.14
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.1, Growth: 80.3%)
$101.27
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.89
Bull Case
$66.44
(+83%)
Analyst growth 75.3%, PE expands to 20.1
Base Case
$60.40
(+66%)
Market implied 75.3%, PE stable at 18.2
Bear Case
$23.43
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 12:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:02 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:02 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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