ATO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ATO - Atmos Energy Corporation
$166.52
0.18 (0.11%)
▲
5d:
-1.18%
30d:
-0.66%
90d:
-3.94%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: February 2, 2026
Earnings: Feb 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ATO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ATO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$232.96
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$144.65
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ATO is currently trading at $166.52, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $166.29 to $169.06. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.0) is in line with its historical norms (20.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 25.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ATO is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $163.57. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ATO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ATO is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $163.57. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ATO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$166.29 -
$169.06
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($177.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$166.29 -
$169.06
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$163.57
Resistance Level
$172.09
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.01
Wall Street Target
$177.00
(+6.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.6%
Profit Margin
25.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.0 vs 20.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$162.69
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$158.95
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$155.29
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→20)
$166.66
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 6.9%)
$238.37
(+43%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.0, Growth: 6.9%)
$203.19
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.2, Growth: 6.9%)
$172.71
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.47
Bull Case
$214.58
(+29%)
Analyst growth 17.3%, PE expands to 24.5
Base Case
$195.07
(+17%)
Market implied 17.3%, PE stable at 22.3
Bear Case
$113.11
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.0 to 20.4
Stabilization Target:
$178.71
(+7.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.3%
Last updated: February 03, 2026 1:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ATO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Rick W. Allen
BUY
2025-08-19
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