AUB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AUB - Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation
$34.66
-0.13 (-0.37%)
▼
5d:
-0.09%
30d:
-6.48%
90d:
-4.78%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AUB shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AUB shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$51.15
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.76
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AUB is currently trading at $34.66, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $34.38 to $38.83. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.6) is in line with its historical norms (9.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 29.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AUB is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $33.37, while resistance sits at $35.93.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $45.19 (+30.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AUB is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $33.37, while resistance sits at $35.93.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $45.19 (+30.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$34.38 -
$38.83
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.4% below Wall St target ($45.19)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$34.38 -
$38.83
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$33.37
Resistance Level
$35.93
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.55
Wall Street Target
$45.19
(+30.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
91.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.8%
Profit Margin
22.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.6 vs 9.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.41
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$32.21
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$31.05
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$34.50
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 7.7%)
$113.19
(+227%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.6, Growth: 7.7%)
$43.31
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.3, Growth: 7.7%)
$36.81
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.03
Bull Case
$75.27
(+117%)
Analyst growth 99.7%, PE expands to 18.6
Base Case
$68.43
(+97%)
Market implied 99.7%, PE stable at 16.9
Bear Case
$23.30
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.6 to 9.5
Stabilization Target:
$38.51
(+11.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 4:45 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:45 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:45 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AUB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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