BHP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BHP - BHP Group Limited American Depositary Shares (Each representing two Ordinary Shares)
$69.02
-0.48 (-0.69%)
▼
5d:
+1.19%
30d:
-15.39%
90d:
+11.52%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Feb 16, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
BHP is down 5.8% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $65 2026-05-15 with 3,525 OI. Call ratio: 61% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BHP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: BHP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$97.29
Based on 4.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$60.41
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BHP is currently trading at $69.02, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $68.40 to $78.47. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.3) compared to its historical average (15.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 27.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BHP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $64.53, while resistance sits at $71.25.
Market Sentiment: BHP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BHP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $64.53, while resistance sits at $71.25.
Market Sentiment: BHP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$68.40 -
$78.47
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding BHP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($66.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$68.40 -
$78.47
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$64.53
Resistance Level
$71.25
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.28
Wall Street Target
$66.00
(-4.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
27.5%
Profit Margin
19.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.3 vs 15.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$65.98
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$63.08
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$60.30
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$69.04
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 4.5%)
$132.44
(+92%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.3, Growth: 4.5%)
$78.68
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.3, Growth: 4.5%)
$66.87
(-3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.03
Bull Case
$92.64
(+36%)
Analyst growth 29.0%, PE expands to 17.8
Base Case
$84.22
(+24%)
Market implied 29.0%, PE stable at 16.2
Bear Case
$44.40
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.3 to 15.2
Stabilization Target:
$79.01
(+14.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 12:05 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:05 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:05 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BHP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Josh Gottheimer
SELL
2025-11-19
Lisa C. McClain
SELL
2025-10-31
Lisa C. McClain
BUY
2025-10-30
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Advanced BHP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BHP price and gamma walls.
