VALE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VALE - VALE S.A.
$16.32
-0.26 (-1.57%)
▼
5d:
-1.86%
30d:
-6.37%
90d:
-1.98%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
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1 traders called VALE this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: VALE shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: VALE shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.97
Based on 0.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.92
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VALE is currently trading at $16.32, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.24 to $17.42. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.0) is in line with its historical norms (7.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VALE is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $15.79, while resistance sits at $17.28.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VALE is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $15.79, while resistance sits at $17.28.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$16.24 -
$17.42
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($17.22)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.24 -
$17.42
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.80
Resistance Level
$17.28
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.03
Wall Street Target
$17.22
(+5.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.0%
Profit Margin
7.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.3% premium
PE vs Historical
8.0 vs 7.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.70
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$17.08
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$17.47
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$16.33
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: -2.1%)
$42.13
(+158%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.0, Growth: -2.1%)
$15.32
(-6%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.8, Growth: -2.1%)
$13.02
(-20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.17 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.66
Bull Case
$35.10
(+115%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 26.6
Base Case
$31.91
(+96%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 24.2
Bear Case
$10.85
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 9:12 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:12 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:12 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VALE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Parenti Grazielle Tallia
BUY
10464 shares
2026-04-01
Sobrinho Sami Arap
BUY
12990 shares
2026-04-01
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