CGNT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CGNT - Cognyte Software Ltd. Ordinary Shares
$7.93
0.18 (2.32%)
▲
5d:
-2.7%
30d:
+11.85%
90d:
-14.82%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 08, 2026
8d
Smart Money Accumulation
CGNT is down 5.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $10 2026-04-17 with 1,289 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CGNT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 14.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CGNT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 14.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.77
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.03
28.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CGNT is currently trading at $7.93, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.03 to $8.57. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.7) compared to its historical average (35.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 14.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGNT is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $7.62, while resistance sits at $9.33.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.33 (+55.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGNT is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $7.62, while resistance sits at $9.33.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.33 (+55.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$7.03 -
$8.57
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 55.5% below Wall St target ($12.33)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$7.03 -
$8.57
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.62
Resistance Level
$9.33
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.73
Wall Street Target
$12.33
(+55.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-74.8%
Profit Margin
-0.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-14.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.7 vs 35.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-14.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.14
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$6.42
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$5.78
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→35)
$9.31
(+17%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 55.3%)
$27.53
(+247%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.7, Growth: 55.3%)
$26.76
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 55.3%)
$22.75
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.7 to 35.0
Stabilization Target:
$12.78
(+61.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+61.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 5:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CGNT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced CGNT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CGNT price and gamma walls.
