CMP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

CMP - Compass Minerals International, Inc.

MINING & QUARRYING OF NONMETALLIC MINERALS (NO FUELS)
$22.73
-0.32 (-1.39%) ▼
5d: -0.31%
30d: -9.8%
90d: +13.31%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CMP shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$45.96
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.54
20.4% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.2x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: CMP is currently trading at $22.73, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.50 to $24.57. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.3) is in line with its historical norms (23.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, CMP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $20.82, while resistance sits at $25.19.

Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (15th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.75 (+13.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range $22.50 - $24.57
Company Quality Score 54/100 (HOLD)
Options IV Signal 15th percentile (COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 81.5%

All Signals

  • BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
  • BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 15th percentile)
  • NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($25.75)

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $22.50 - $24.57
Current vs Fair Value SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days) ±$1.63 (7.2%)

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $20.82
Resistance Level $25.19
Current Trend Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of Mar 30, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 22.34
Wall Street Target $25.75 (+13.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) -25.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY) -91.7%
Profit Margin -12.5%
Valuation Discount vs History -1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical 22.3 vs 23.2 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -1.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $22.43 (-1%)
2-Year Target $22.14 (-3%)
3-Year Target $21.86 (-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 22→23) $22.70 (0%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 22.4, Growth: 25.9%) $45.33 (+99%)
Base: (SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 25.9%) $45.31 (+99%)
Bear: (PE: 19.0, Growth: 25.9%) $38.51 (+69%)
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.3 to 23.2
Stabilization Target: $23.60 (+3.8%)
PE Expansion Potential: +3.8%
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Last updated: March 30, 2026 11:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:57 AM
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Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Technical Signals Check
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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