CMS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CMS - CMS Energy Corporation
$71.49
0.59 (0.83%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 05, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CMS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CMS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$94.06
Based on 5.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$58.40
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMS is currently trading at $71.49, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $69.85 to $71.37. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.4) is in line with its historical norms (18.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMS is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $70.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMS is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $70.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$69.85 -
$71.37
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CMS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($77.46)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$69.85 -
$71.37
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$70.03
Resistance Level
$72.70
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.39
Wall Street Target
$77.46
(+9.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.2%
Profit Margin
12.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.4 vs 18.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$70.83
(0%)
2-Year Target
$70.76
(0%)
3-Year Target
$70.69
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→19)
$71.10
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 7.4%)
$106.36
(+50%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.4, Growth: 7.4%)
$87.73
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.6, Growth: 7.4%)
$74.57
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.47
Bull Case
$87.73
(+23%)
Analyst growth 11.1%, PE expands to 22.8
Base Case
$79.76
(+12%)
Market implied 11.1%, PE stable at 20.7
Bear Case
$48.82
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.4 to 18.5
Stabilization Target:
$71.31
(+0.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.6%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 11:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:57 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:57 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CMS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Lauren Y Snyder
SELL
2220 shares
2025-09-05
Julie Johnson
SELL
2025-08-14
Brandon J Hofmeister
SELL
2000 shares
2025-08-08
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CMS price and gamma walls.
