CNQ Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CNQ - Canadian Natural Resources Limited
$37.21
-0.66 (-1.74%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CNQ shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CNQ shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.08
Based on -7.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.85
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CNQ is currently trading at $37.21, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.16 to $35.98. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 14.1) compared to its historical average (11.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CNQ is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.32. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CNQ has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CNQ is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.32. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CNQ has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$32.16 -
$35.98
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($37.04)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 8.6% growth with 7.0% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$32.16 -
$35.98
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$34.10
Resistance Level
$38.32
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.13
Wall Street Target
$37.04
(-2.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-72.9%
Profit Margin
17.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.6% premium
PE vs Historical
14.1 vs 11.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$41.13
(+9%)
2-Year Target
$44.66
(+18%)
3-Year Target
$48.50
(+28%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$37.77
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -19.9%)
$43.58
(+15%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.1, Growth: -19.9%)
$27.61
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.0, Growth: -19.9%)
$21.50
(-43%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.06 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.31
Bull Case
$47.36
(+27%)
Analyst growth 16.1%, PE expands to 17.7
Base Case
$43.06
(+16%)
Market implied 16.1%, PE stable at 16.1
Bear Case
$25.23
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 10:42 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:42 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:42 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CNQ showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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