CSX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CSX - CSX Corporation
$37.76
-0.11 (-0.29%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CSX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CSX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$59.23
Based on 8.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.78
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CSX is currently trading at $37.76, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $35.59 to $37.13. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.1) is in line with its historical norms (18.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CSX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.11. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CSX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CSX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.11. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CSX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$35.59 -
$37.13
Company Quality Score
67/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CSX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($39.71)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$35.59 -
$37.13
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.21
Resistance Level
$38.11
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.12
Wall Street Target
$39.71
(+4.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.2%
Profit Margin
20.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.1 vs 18.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.45
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$37.04
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$36.63
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→19)
$38.02
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 13.2%)
$67.69
(+79%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.1, Growth: 13.2%)
$54.99
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.4, Growth: 13.2%)
$46.74
(+23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.54
Bull Case
$55.81
(+48%)
Analyst growth 35.7%, PE expands to 26.7
Base Case
$50.74
(+34%)
Market implied 35.7%, PE stable at 24.3
Bear Case
$25.42
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.1 to 18.8
Stabilization Target:
$39.30
(+3.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.8%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 9:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CSX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kevin S Boone
SELL
31053 shares
2025-10-22
Michael S Burns
SELL
24249 shares
2025-10-20
Stephen F Angel
BUY
55000 shares
2025-10-20
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