FND Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FND - Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.
$65.96
-2.30 (-3.37%)
▼
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 19, 2026
19d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: FND is down 12.3% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: FND is down 12.3% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$76.01
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$47.19
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FND is currently trading at $65.96, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $63.32 to $74.28. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 32.3) is in line with its historical norms (31.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FND is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $65.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $77.50 (+13.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FND is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $65.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $77.50 (+13.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$63.32 -
$74.28
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding FND? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($77.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -12.3% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$63.32 -
$74.28
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$65.40
Resistance Level
$77.46
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
32.26
Wall Street Target
$77.50
(+13.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
10.4%
Profit Margin
4.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.8% premium
PE vs Historical
32.3 vs 31.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$68.81
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$69.36
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$69.91
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 32→32)
PE COMPRESSION
$68.26
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 32.3, Growth: 11.1%)
$93.49
(+37%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 11.1%)
$64.62
(-5%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 11.1%)
$54.93
(-20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (32x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 35.92 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.00
Bull Case
$83.60
(+23%)
Analyst growth 5.8%, PE expands to 39.5
Base Case
$76.00
(+11%)
Market implied 5.8%, PE stable at 35.9
Bear Case
$48.85
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 30.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FND showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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