FSLR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FSLR - First Solar, Inc.
$197.81
-1.61 (-0.81%)
▼
5d:
+6.44%
30d:
+0.27%
90d:
-24.28%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
FSLR is down 11.9% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $280 2026-04-17 with 5,713 OI. Call ratio: 66% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FSLR appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.8% annual earnings decline despite 32% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FSLR appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.8% annual earnings decline despite 32% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$465.74
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$289.19
31.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FSLR is currently trading at $197.81, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $186.21 to $212.32. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.4) compared to its historical average (10.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 32.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FSLR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $200.73. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FSLR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $250.57 (+25.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FSLR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $200.73. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FSLR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $250.57 (+25.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$186.21 -
$212.32
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.6% below Wall St target ($250.57)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$186.21 -
$212.32
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$182.99
Resistance Level
$200.73
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.42
Wall Street Target
$250.57
(+25.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.3%
Profit Margin
29.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.4 vs 10.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$187.85
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$176.96
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$166.69
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$199.92
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 30.4%)
$1173.58
(+489%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.4, Growth: 30.4%)
$442.21
(+122%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.2, Growth: 30.4%)
$375.88
(+89%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $14.21
Bull Case
$361.75
(+91%)
Analyst growth 70.6%, PE expands to 14.9
Base Case
$328.87
(+73%)
Market implied 70.6%, PE stable at 13.6
Bear Case
$131.12
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.4 to 10.1
Stabilization Target:
$239.16
(+19.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 10:34 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:34 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:34 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FSLR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jason E Dymbort
SELL
9022 shares
2026-03-17
Kuntal Kumar Verma
SELL
180 shares
2026-03-17
Nathan B Theurer
SELL
96 shares
2026-03-17
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