HCC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HCC - Warrior Met Coal, Inc.
$89.30
-2.79 (-3.03%)
▼
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 12, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HCC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HCC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$184.78
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$114.74
22.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCC is currently trading at $89.30, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $88.61 to $99.06. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.5) is in line with its historical norms (12.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $88.16. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $98.83 (+10.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $88.16. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $98.83 (+10.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$88.61 -
$99.06
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding HCC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($98.83)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -9.2% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$88.61 -
$99.06
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$88.16
Resistance Level
$103.47
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.48
Wall Street Target
$98.83
(+10.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-12.8%
Profit Margin
2.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.5 vs 12.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$87.42
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$85.59
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$83.79
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$89.04
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 554.9%)
$585.38
(+556%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.5, Growth: 554.9%)
$301.39
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.8, Growth: 554.9%)
$256.18
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 14.56 | Forward EPS (Implied): $6.13
Bull Case
$107.83
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 15.3
Base Case
$89.30
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 14.6
Bear Case
$68.31
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 13.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.5 to 12.2
Stabilization Target:
$94.89
(+6.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.3%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 3:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:25 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is HCC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Advanced HCC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HCC price and gamma walls.
