HCC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HCC - Warrior Met Coal, Inc.
$94.65
0.42 (0.45%)
▲
5d:
-0.98%
30d:
+16.66%
90d:
+6.15%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
28d
Smart Money Distribution
HCC is up 5.6% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $70 2026-05-15 with 484 OI. Put ratio: 62% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HCC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HCC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$143.27
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$88.96
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCC is currently trading at $94.64, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $81.46 to $88.86. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.4) is in line with its historical norms (11.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1918.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $84.23, while resistance sits at $100.73.
Market Sentiment: HCC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $105.83 (+12.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $84.23, while resistance sits at $100.73.
Market Sentiment: HCC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $105.83 (+12.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$81.46 -
$88.86
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding HCC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.5% above fair value)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($105.83)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$81.46 -
$88.86
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$84.23
Resistance Level
$100.73
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.38
Wall Street Target
$105.83
(+12.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
29.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1918.0%
Profit Margin
4.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.4 vs 11.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$91.39
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$88.65
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$85.99
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$94.40
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 9.5%)
$265.94
(+182%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.4, Growth: 9.5%)
$123.56
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: 9.5%)
$105.02
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 13.93 | Forward EPS (Implied): $6.21
Bull Case
$104.44
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 14.6
Base Case
$86.49
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 13.9
Bear Case
$66.16
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 12.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.4 to 11.4
Stabilization Target:
$103.44
(+9.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 10:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:27 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:27 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is HCC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kelli K Gant
SELL
10000 shares
2026-01-12
Walter J Scheller
SELL
100000 shares
2026-01-12
Walter J Scheller
SELL
18966 shares
2025-11-06
Advanced HCC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HCC price and gamma walls.
