HGV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HGV - Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. Common Stock
$40.50
0.04 (0.10%)
▲
5d:
+0.35%
30d:
-9.27%
90d:
-9.5%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HGV shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HGV shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$76.77
Based on 9.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$47.67
15.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HGV is currently trading at $40.50, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.82 to $45.29. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.2) compared to its historical average (9.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 187.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGV is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $37.46, while resistance sits at $42.77.
Market Sentiment: HGV has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $54.70 (+35.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGV is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $37.46, while resistance sits at $42.77.
Market Sentiment: HGV has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $54.70 (+35.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$39.82 -
$45.29
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.2% below Wall St target ($54.70)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$39.82 -
$45.29
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.46
Resistance Level
$42.77
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.23
Wall Street Target
$54.70
(+35.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
187.2%
Profit Margin
1.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.2 vs 9.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.11
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$35.90
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$33.82
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$40.26
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 15.7%)
$170.33
(+321%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: 15.7%)
$62.73
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: 15.7%)
$53.32
(+32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (45x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 45.21 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.89
Bull Case
$88.53
(+113%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 49.7
Base Case
$80.48
(+93%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 45.2
Bear Case
$27.36
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 38.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.2 to 9.8
Stabilization Target:
$48.17
(+19.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 10:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:52 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:52 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is HGV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Charles R Jr. Corbin
SELL
30426 shares
2025-11-03
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