MGM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MGM - MGM RESORTS INTERNATIONAL
$37.09
0.12 (0.32%)
▲
5d:
-0.56%
30d:
-3.89%
90d:
+8.23%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 04, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
MGM is down 3.1% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $45 2026-05-15 with 12,529 OI. Call ratio: 74% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MGM shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MGM shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$53.57
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$33.26
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MGM is currently trading at $37.09, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.18 to $39.26. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.0) is in line with its historical norms (15.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $36.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.00 (+19.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $36.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.00 (+19.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$37.18 -
$39.26
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($44.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.6% growth with 4.2% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.18 -
$39.26
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.36
Resistance Level
$39.10
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.00
Wall Street Target
$44.00
(+19.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-5.9%
Profit Margin
1.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
16.0 vs 15.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.19
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$37.41
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$37.64
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$36.93
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 12.3%)
$72.13
(+95%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.0, Growth: 12.3%)
$52.30
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.6, Growth: 12.3%)
$44.46
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 20.62 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.79
Bull Case
$44.64
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 21.7
Base Case
$36.97
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 20.6
Bear Case
$28.28
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 18.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 4:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MGM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
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Advanced MGM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MGM price and gamma walls.
