MGM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MGM - MGM RESORTS INTERNATIONAL
$47.10
-0.42 (-0.88%)
▼
5d:
-0.21%
30d:
-2.61%
90d:
+28.06%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
25d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MGM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MGM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$65.67
Based on 11.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$40.78
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MGM is currently trading at $47.10, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $44.44 to $49.39. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 20.3) compared to its historical average (16.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGM is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $40.32, while resistance sits at $51.59.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGM is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $40.32, while resistance sits at $51.59.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$44.44 -
$49.39
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($46.61)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 6.9% growth with 4.2% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$44.44 -
$49.39
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$40.32
Resistance Level
$51.59
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.27
Wall Street Target
$46.61
(-1.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-5.9%
Profit Margin
1.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.9% premium
PE vs Historical
20.3 vs 16.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$50.35
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$53.82
(+14%)
3-Year Target
$57.54
(+22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$47.12
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 18.7%)
$84.56
(+80%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.3, Growth: 18.7%)
$78.69
(+67%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.6, Growth: 18.7%)
$64.45
(+37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 23.75 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.98
Bull Case
$56.87
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 24.9
Base Case
$47.10
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 23.8
Bear Case
$36.03
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 21.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 6:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:35 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MGM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
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