HOLX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HOLX - Hologic Inc
$75.55
-0.12 (-0.16%)
▼
5d:
-0.12%
30d:
+0.25%
90d:
+1.41%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HOLX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.5% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HOLX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.5% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$50.90
Based on -5.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.60
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HOLX is currently trading at $75.55, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $75.23 to $75.62. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 20.0) compared to its historical average (18.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HOLX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $75.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HOLX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HOLX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $75.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HOLX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$75.23 -
$75.62
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($76.67)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.5% growth with 2.5% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$75.23 -
$75.62
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$75.03
Resistance Level
$75.78
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.99
Wall Street Target
$76.67
(+1.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.2%
Profit Margin
13.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.5% premium
PE vs Historical
20.0 vs 18.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$78.19
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$80.93
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$83.76
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→18)
PE COMPRESSION
$75.41
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: -14.8%)
$61.57
(+-19%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.0, Growth: -14.8%)
$55.08
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.0, Growth: -14.8%)
$46.81
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.41
Bull Case
$130.06
(+72%)
Analyst growth 56.8%, PE expands to 34.4
Base Case
$118.23
(+56%)
Market implied 56.8%, PE stable at 31.3
Bear Case
$51.28
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 12:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HOLX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-29
Ro Khanna
SELL
2025-11-07
Ro Khanna
SELL
2025-11-07
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